User:Etzan/East African Civil War: An Exercise in Diplomacy

Hey guys! Those of you who were on IRC when I was throwing around ideas know that I take a great interest in the unfolding Crimean Crisis and that I'd like to see more stories like it in the fictionverse, especially when it comes to politics. Granted, a story with so many levels of depth is difficult to organize despite it not being that complex. Organizing a wider political reaction to events is a bit difficult with so many writers with different levels of commitment, especially within the context of a body like the UN, where mechanics like voting and debates need active participants.

This blog is going to try to organize a realistic human reaction to the events that unfolded in 2796 in the East African Alliance, which will retroactively call the East African Civil War. Depending on the opinions gathered on this blog, the human reaction could come in the form of unified military action on behalf of the UN surrogate, a standoff between two coalitions of nations who disagree on what should be done in East Africa, or something else entirely.

Without further ado, let's jump in, shall we?

What is going on in fiction
I must admit that I haven't done that great a job explaining the situation, especially on the UDB. The French UDB post was meant as an incredibly one-sided retelling of the events, limited by what France knew at the time and what it could afford to reveal. This section will attempt to explain what occurred and what kind of information is widely available. I split the retelling into four subsections to make it easier to read and discuss in the comments.

Background
Essentially what happened is this: The Imperial Ottoman Directorate circulated propaganda in East Africa over decades that took advantage of ethnic and religious tensions, fermenting a revolution. By 2796, the movement had acquired a vast army of followers, a force that could match the East African Armed Forces given the element of surprise. The Ottomans supplied them with weapons, starships, leadership, and other resources. What's more, they encouraged them to form their own underground government. For a more lengthy and complete explanation, see me on IRC.

This involvement on the part of the Ottomans will be blatantly obvious to all parties who are paying attention. The rebels not quiet about their views. What's more, they couldn't have accomplished what they did without outside help, and the equipment they're using (if the Africans are to be believed) are blatantly Ottoman.

Phase 1
Phase 1 of the East African Civil war consists of a surprise attack against East Africa by rebel forces. Aided by Ottoman Special Forces, the rebels quickly tore down large portions of East Africa's defense network through lightning attacks and destroyed good portions of its heavier starships, most of which were stored in peacetime drydocks. This phase of the war lasted a few days at most and was characterized by masterful use asymmetrical warfare techniques on behalf of the rebels and Ottomans, clearing the way for the less-than-professional rebel army.

The primary belligerents during this stage were the rebels and those loyal to the government, with the forces of the African Economic Alliance marshaling to respond in the background. Some South African special ops regiments took part in the fighting, though their usefulness was limited.

Phase 2
Phase 2 is often considered a "conventional" war. The rebel fleet materialized out of nowhere, composed primarily of Ottoman ships and ships captured from East African shipyards. They began capturing planets and asserting control over whole sectors of space, fighting on even terms with the crumbling East African Armed Forces. The armies of Central Africa and Fiction:Southern Africanus Dominion entered the fighting and propped up the East African defense, though their commitment was matched by Ottoman regiments––bearing rebel insignia––entering the fray. As a result, the rebels continued to make gains.

This is where the majority of the international debate will take place, with the human nations playing politics to decide what will be done about the devolving situation. Should East Africa be saved? Is this a righteous revolution, a people asserting their right to self-determination? Or is it a hostile takeover of a democratic state by an imperialist one? Is the Sultanate really its own nation, or is it just a puppet of the Ottoman Empire? These are questions that will be argued back and forth.

Phase 3
Phase 3 is not so much a shift in the tactical landscape as in the political one. Several weeks into the war, the East African president was captured and brought to the heart of the East African Sultanate. There, he was brutally executed without trial or preamble. The act was recorded and broadcasted everywhere by the Sultanate, meant to deal a massive blow to the African morale. This was a mistake, as the act shocked the international community and changed the color of the political conversation massively. They went from being freedom fighters to murderers, needlessly killing an enemy commander when common decency and international law demands that he should be treated well.

The act also gave nations like France and the Fjord League the perfect casus belli to declare war and immerse themselves completely in the conflict, since less objections would be raised to their involvement (this is tentative, awaiting how you guys would react). How would your fiction react to this new development? How would their position change? What would they do?

Main belligerents
East African Sultanate - Despite its monarchal name, the East African Sultanate is a single-party socialist state with very strong Islamic influences. It is primarily composed of Somali who believe that they are oppressed by a middle/upper-class Judeo-Christian Ethiopian minority which controls the government. East African Alliance - Historically a union between Ethiopia and Somalia, the East African Alliance is a capitalist democratic state with no clear dominant culture or religion. It has had close ties with South Africa, Central Africa, and France, and is a historical enemy of the Great Empire of Sun and Sand and Imperial Ottoman Directorate. African Economic Alliance - Ever since its inception during the Human Colonial Wars, the African Economic Alliance has been a binding force between the three nations of Africa.

Reactions
Imperial Ottoman Directorate South Africa Central African States France Roreinia Fjord League
 * Phase 1: Once the East African Sultanate went public, the Ottomans immediately recognized them as a sovereign state worthy of self-determination. Though it denied any military involvement in the conflict, the Ottoman Empire loudly proclaimed its support for the rebel's efforts and threatened "consequences" for anyone who intervened.
 * Phase 2: ...
 * Phase 3: ...
 * Phase 1: A close ally of East Africa through the African Economic Alliance, South Africa was called to aid in the conflict at its beginning. As its troops marshaled for battle, it sent a number of special ops regiments into East African territory to help stave off Ottoman-Rebel attacks.
 * Phase 2: By the second week of the war, some of South Africa's fleets had reached the front and more were on the way. It actively argued in the international community to classify the East African Sultanate as an illegal terrorist organization funded by the Ottoman Empire.
 * Phase 3: South Africa expressed shock and outrage at the execution of the East African president and redoubled their efforts, along with France, to get the international community to intervene.
 * Phase 1: Just like South Africa, Central Africa was called to war early, though its distance from East Africa kept it from getting involved in any meaningful way until its fleets could get there.
 * Phase 2: By the middle of the second week, Central African forces were on the front.
 * Phase 3: ...
 * Phase 1: France was approached by the East African Embassy and presented with evidence that the rebellion was a lot more than a coordinated terrorist operation and that it was being funded and led by the Ottomans. Though France pledged to send supplies to help East Africa in its struggle, it knew it could not get involved directly, as the Ottomans had already declared that it was protecting the East African Sultanate. Any attempt at intervention meant risking war with the Ottomans and a diplomatic backlash. Instead, the French took the issue to the international community and demanded that the East African Sultante be classified as a terrorist organization.
 * Phase 2: When it became clear that the African Economic Alliance's entry into the conflict would not put a quick end to it, France played its hand. It publicly denounced the Ottomans and released proof that it was responsible for the uprising, demanding that they withdraw support from the East African Sultanate. When the Ottomans refused, the French withdrew their embassy from Ottoman soil and called for an embargo on Ottoman shipping. Meanwhile, it continued its efforts to push for international action. By the third week, when the South African president personally visited France in an attempt to get them to reconsider military action in East Africa, France gave in and dispatched elements of the French Foreign Legion to East Africa and placed them under East African command. If anyone were to have called them out on this, France would have pointed to the fact that the Ottomans were supplying the Sultanate entire regiments of their troops.
 * Phase 3: France would use the murder of the East African President to its best advantage, calling in outrage for united human action while it marshaled its own troops for battle. The execution was the casus belli it needed to intervene, and if nobody else objected too strongly, it would take it and send the French Armed Forces into East Africa.
 * Phase 1: Though Roreinia was cautious at first, they had initiated diplomatic relations with the East African Sultanate by the end of the first week, thereby recognizing it as a sovereign state. In explaining their decision, they pointed to their own past as a revolutionary state and argued that the Sultanate had every right to determine its own future if it felt that the current government was not servicing its needs.
 * Phase 2: Upon request from the East African Sultanate, Roreinia began smuggling supplies into East Africa to help them in their struggle.
 * Phase 3: ...
 * Phase 1: ...
 * Phase 2: ...
 * Phase 3: Taking its chance, the Fjord League would take military action alongside France.