Thread:Zillafire101/@comment-4960835-20160524105213/@comment-25309944-20160913182142

Yes, I know he's not out to win the war. I put (1) there as a precondition for (2). He needs lots of (preferably civilian) deaths, and the only way to do that is by engaging in a drawn-out total war. A drawn-out total war typically requires that the balance of power between opposing forces be roughly equal, whereas if one side has overwhelming force the war usually ends quickly and with few civilian casualties. So, in order to get his big war, he needs to tilt the balance of power in his favor by getting other powers to support his war. I.e., he needs to convince them that war is a good idea, which usually implies that they can win. Hence, being actually able to concievably win is usually a precondition for launching a long and costly war.