Thread:Charles Murray/@comment-4960835-20151217190407/@comment-25309944-20151217201325

This is great feedback, thanks a lot!

You're absolutely right in that the French analysis lacks any detail or satisfactory discussion of the composition and extent of non-Tralor Mirusian power. In fact, I've had a section called "Rise of the Third Pole: Mirusian State Actors sitting unfinished in my browser for a couple months. What you've said here has given me a lot of material to complete the portions I've been having trouble with. I did intend to analyze the composition of the different alliances, the main actors, (chiefly the UAE), but was not able to get around to it due to work.

With that said, I would still defend the current French analysis as broad but not wholly wrong when it comes to that "third pole."

What do I mean by "pole?" In international relations theory, (structural realism), a "pole" is a center of geopolitical gravity around which states orbit for their own security and economic well-being. An international system can be "unipolar" (having only one pole, one superpower to dominate them all; Rome at its height, Pax Britannica in the 1870's, Pax Americana in the 1990's, etc), "bipolar" (having two major superpowers; the Cold War), or "multipolar" (having multiple powers; the world of today––this is the most unstable type of system), depending on the balance of power and alliances across actors.

France's analysis cast modern Mirus at the moment of the Wars of Mirusian Coalition as an unbalanced tri-polar system with three distinct poles. These poles are: (1) the Tralor/CyraEmp alliance, (2) Xonexi, (3) UAE/Imperium of War/Zarbania powers.

In France's analysis, the tri-polar system is very short-lived––as is the ability of Mirusians to constitute their own pole, and unpacking why will hopefully allow us to reconcile our two analyses.

For most of recent history, France argues, the Mirusian natives have existed in their own isolated state system which had some interaction with the outside world. However, all of the meaningful power interactions tended to happen inside that system, creating a balance of power which was perfectly self-contained and subject to very little foreign interference. If you've ever studied the Italian Wars, you might understand more clearly what I'm talking about. Since these actors (as you pointed out, the main antagonists were the UAE and the IoW-Zarbanian alliance) were preoccupied primarily with maintaining the balance between each other (maintaining their own poles), they could spare little power to project influence outside of that system. (This neatly explains why the Mirus group has been isolated for so long, btw)

As a result, since the Mirusian system had its own poles which roughly canceled each other out, I wouldn't say that the UAE consisted much of a pole of gravity for much of the galaxy's history. The galaxy went from unipolar (Tralor supremacy) to bipolar (Tralor + Tyranny), then briefly back to unipolar with the fall of the Tyranny, and then back to bipolar (Tralor/CyraEmp + Xonexi). However, once the Sovereign Mirusian Coalition formed, the borders of the self-contained Mirusian state system faded away. All over a sudden, there was nothing keeping the UAE pinned down in northern Mirus. Better yet, they had the help of the Imperium of War and the Zarbanians. This is the moment when the system went tri-polar, when the Mirusians could truly project power on the galactic scale, and to seriously harm the second pole, which was the Xonexi Allies.

However, once the Sovereign Mirusian Coalition broke down during the Second War, the tripolar system also broke down, and we're left with a highly unstable and uncertain arrangement which has yet to crystalize.

Quick disclaimer: All of the above is based on calculations of relative projection power on different scales, not objective power.

Now that we've gone through all of that, I can answer the second half of your message, which asks me to look to the future. Alexandre's hope is to create a bi-polar system where the UAE and the Xonexi Allies can counterbalance Tyrómairon's power. In order to accomplish this, he absolutely don't want to usurp or weaken the UAE. He needs it, and hopes to give it a serious role to play in the Covenant of Mirus. You mentioned that the UAE is a good mirror to the Xonexi Allies, which would suggest that it could continue existing in parallel with the Xonexi Allies with a superior authority governing both organizations.

And again, you might be surprised by what Alexandre has to say at the Waptorian state visit.