Thread:Ecoraptor3339/@comment-5496489-20160524151005/@comment-25309944-20161026050405

Hi guys. I've been thinking a lot about military stuff and the balance of power recently and talking about it with a couple of users. I've updated France's order of battle to reflect reforms and expansion of the Grand Navy after the shocks of 2816. I also hope it's a lot more understandable now given the changes I've made to it. It is a comprehensive list of all of France's military assets and their location in the Gigaquadrant, and a very useful tool for strategic planning with France involved.

One of the things I wanted to talk about a little bit is relative military power in Mirus and Alcanti Triad grand strategy over the past ten years. From 2807 to 2816, Xonexi planners and policy makers needed to balance the amount of military power they should maintain in Mirus at any given time. They needed to have enough military assets that (1) a lone Mirusian native power wasn't just going to attack them, and that (2) it would be clear that a successful coalition against the Alcanti Triad would be difficult to assemble. However, Xonexi could not have too much force in Mirus because (3) it would be broadly threatening and precipitate undecided Mirusian states into coalition against Xonexi and make such a coalition easier to form, and (4) the Draconid Imperium and France, for different reasons, were incapable of investing large amount of military resources there.

As a result, the Alcanti Triad settled in 2807 on a 1:1 equivalence policy whereby each of them would (in theory) maintain a military force in Mirus equivalent to the most powerful Mirusian native state (barring the ULE). The key to this policy is that it takes (generally, this is a rule of thumb) three times more military power to attack than it does to defend. This is the result (from the theoretical point of view of Xonexi planners):
 * (1) Individual Alcanti Triad states are able to deter a surprise attack from a lone Mirusian native state, given that a defending force with a 1:1 equivalence with the attacker will tend to prevail.
 * (2) Individual Alcanti Triad states are incapable of launching a surprise attack on a lone Mirusian native states due to that same problem. The hope is that this would have shown that the Alcanti Triad have purely defensive intent, not offensive. Once you factor in that such an attack would spark an anti-Xonexi coalition, it is clear that such an attack isn't in the Triad's interests.
 * (3) An offensive coalition against the Alcanti powers would need to achieve a ratio of 9:3 in order to have a chance at carrying out a successful surprise attack. In other words, the coalition would need to gather 9 states with militaries of that caliber which are willing to put everything on the line, take immense risks, and pay a high price to carry out such an attack. The problems in orchestrating such a 9-nation coalition, irrespective of the fact that there are probable not 9 such states in Mirus, are immense in terms of coordination, diplomacy, motivation, and so on.
 * (4) However, the Alcanti Triad can launch an attack with a 3:1 force ratio if they act together against a rogue Mirusian state, which preserves their freedom of action.

IN PRACTICE, it's likely the policy would have worked out a bit differently than intended, and that's where your feedback comes in. On the Triad side, the Draconid Imperium was involved in the Third House War (a civil war) from 2806 to 2809, and thus could only field a 0.5:1 ratio. The TIAF therefore stepped in and made up the difference, fielding a 1.5:1 ratio from 2806 to 2810. France also encountered difficulties with its normalcy parliament under the Marier administration, which kept insisting on military budget cuts and unilateral withdrawals. France wasn't able to make 1:1 with conventional troops, so it created a reservist service in French Mirus which would mobilize the necessary units from the population to make up the difference. This had the benefit and the drawback of being slow to mobilize, which again indicated defensive intent but was unwieldy and risky in a crisis. It is likely, however, that France was disallowed from keeping up with Mendel mobilization, which means that when the Mendel came knocking in 2810 the ratio was slightly skewed in their favor, a problem that was compounded by the lengthy reservist mobilization time and the poor quality of the troops that produced. For France, 1:1 equivalence meant the deployment/maintenance of 2 naval corps, 2 army corps, 1 light naval corps, 1 void hunter corps, and 5 national guard corps in Mirus, plus defensive airpower.

This policy would be maintained after the Borealum Crisis, though the Draconis would succeed in making it to 1:1 equivalence and the TIAF would scale back from 1.5:1 to 1:1.

France would revisit its deployment in 2816 after the UPD's attack on its soil. It deployed the entire Grand Navy to Mirus for naval exercises, which threw the equivalence way off for six months. When it finished, it has decided to maintain a 2:1 ratio instead of 1:1, though this had a great emphasis on naval power as a shield against attack. France permanently based 2 more Naval Corps in Mirus, had French Godrine raise and maintain 1 Army Corps, and based 1 more Army Corps on Menento. In order to reduce just how threatening a capital fleet of 4 naval corps is, it split them into two capital fleets, one based in eastern French Mirus overlooking the eastern unclaimed regions, the other based in the west overlooking the western unclaimed regions. France has indicated that this deployment is temporary and it intends to revisit it's deployment once the Covenant has been reformed.

Here are France's Mirusian dispositions in detail as of 2818:

Mirus Command (MIRCOM) Marshal Franc de Guise - Teindas
 * FIS Capital Fleet.png Mirusian West Capital Fleet
 * Grand Navy of the Empire black.png FIS line corps.png FIS line corps.png FIS void corps.png FIS Logistic Corps.png
 * FIS Capital Fleet.png Mirusian East Capital Fleet
 * Grand Navy of the Empire black.png FIS line corps.png
 * Flag of the Commonwealth of French Andromeda.png FIS line corps.png
 * FIS Six stars.png Godrine-Bélances
 * Grand Navy of the Empire black.png FIS Corps d'Armee.png FIS Corps d'Armee.png FIS Air Command.png FIS Air Command.png FIS Military Station.png FIS Military Station.png FIS Military Station.png FIS Military Station.png FIS Military Station.png Blank Space.png FIS Fortified Planet.png
 * French Mirus Colonies.png FIS Corps d'Armee.png FIS National Guard.png
 * French Mirus Colonies.png FIS National Guard.png
 * FIS Six stars.png Baako-Thanates
 * Grand Navy of the Empire black.png FIS Air Command.png FIS Military Station.png FIS Military Station.png FIS Fortified Planet.png
 * French Mirus Colonies.png FIS National Guard.png
 * French Mirus Colonies.png FIS National Guard.png
 * FIS Six stars.png Frashoereti
 * Grand Navy of the Empire black.png FIS Air Command.png FIS Military Station.png FIS Military Station.png
 * French Mirus Colonies.png FIS National Guard.png
 * FIS Six stars.png Menento
 * Grand Navy of the Empire black.png FIS Corps d'Armee.png FIS Air Command.png FIS Logistic Corps.png FIS Fortified Planet.png

Please let me know what you think! I'd love feedback or just general thoughts on the above analysis. If a Mirusian power is uncomfortable with the above and wants to tell France "no, that's not okay, I'd like you to change it," I'd love to hear that to. France listens to that kind of thing.